Anticipating Emerging Flood Risks
15 June 2022

Anticipating Emerging Flood Risks: What can we learn from the past and what do we need for the future?

Over the last decades the reported flood damages have increased tremendously in most regions of theworld. Although changes in flood frequency and magnitude cannot be excluded the main cause is seenin the land use changes in flood prone regions transforming agricultural land into industrial andresidential areas. To be able to account for these changes an anticipatory flood risk assessment andmanagement is required to identify at an early stage emerging hot spots of flood damage.This lecture presents a methodology considering potential land use development plans and possibleimpacts of climate change on flood damages. In a first step those areas are identified which exhibitalready today a higher flood risk. Second, population changes and the respective regional development plans are analysed and areas with increasing population are delineated. These two layers of informationare combined to rank regions with respect to emerging flood risk. Due to the large uncertainties indetecting climate induced changes in flood frequency a sensitivity analysis is applied by augmenting theflood peaks by 10%. The respective changes in inundated area are dependent on the topography whilethe increase of damages is obtained by intersection of future flood maps and land use. The proposedmethod was applied to whole Austria. Here, the application to a province is described where a rankingamong districts was established identifying high present risk municipalities together with the future increase in exposure. This information can be used for adjustment of land development plans and/or for planning of flood protection measures.

Prof. Ing. Dr.Hans-Peter Nachtnebel

Prof. Ing. Dr. Hans-Peter Nachtnebel

Emeritus Professor

Institute of Hydrology and Water Management

University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences

Muthg. 18, 1190 Vienna


Brief Bio

Prof. Hans-Peter Nachtnebelis Professor Emeritus. His main fields of interests are water resources systems and risk analysis, impact of climate change on water resources, conflict analysis, stochastic hydrology, multi-objective decision making, geographical information systems and their application in water resources management. Professor Nachtnebel was recently award with the “Golden Needle’ of the Austrian Association of Water and Waste Management. Professor Hans-Peter is also member of theMember of International Advisory Council of The Grassroots Institute and Member of the Advisory Board of Grassroots Journal of Natural Resources.

Highest Education


Expertise Areas

Hydrologic Modelling and Real Time Forecasting; Alpine Hydrology; Environmental Risk Assessment and Management; Water Resources Planning and Management; Multi-criterion Decision Making; Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources; Sediment Transport Eco-Hydrology

Relevant Publications

Online Global Lecture | Join Free

15 June 2022

Time: 16.00 Hours – 17.30 Hours Central European Summer Time (CEST)

Zoom ID & Link: 991 6820 3829

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